Simple NFL Systems - #32: Winless teams that deserve attention.
By: DENNIS ARTHUR
Here is a simple betting system that pretty much anyone with either Internet access, or a newspaper sports section from the current and previous week, can follow. It will usually offer 2-6 opportunites for profit each season.
The premise is this: Most of us know that the NFL point-spread is typically shaded to favour the underdog because of the inherent bias in the NFL betting market towards the favourite. This bias is even more pronounced when certain situations arise and this particular betting system definitely falls into this category.
This system relies on only 2 basic Primary conditions. The first is that the team in question is winless straight-up. They don't necessarily have to be winless against the spread, only winless in the league standings.
Secondly, we are only going to look at games in the middle of the season, namely, between Weeks 6 and 13. This system is not effective in the first 5 weeks of the regular season when the betting public is still supporting winless teams in most cases. There have only been a handful of teams in the history of the league that were still winless after Week 13, and this system has had mixed results in those cases.
So, what is the ATS record of winless teams in Weeks 6 to 13 since 1994? They happen to be an outstanding 55-22 ATS in the past 13 seasons and a perfect 5-0 ATS in 2006!
You are probably ready to ask: how does such an obviously simple betting angle continue to perform so well against the spread year after year? The answer lies with the earlier reference in this article to the inherent bias towards betting on favourites by the vast numbers of 'square' bettors in North America. In this particular situation, it's even more pronounced because so many more people have essentially 'given up' on winless teams by Week 6. More action on the favourite—and teams that are winless after Week 6 are in fact, an underdog in over 86% of cases—means a slightly higher line, and an increased chance that the underdog will beat the number.
Another factor in all of this is that teams that are 0-5, 0-6, etc. are probably not as bad as their record might indicate. You don't lose your first 6 games by getting a few lucky bounces here and there. Out of the 77 instances in the past 13 seasons that a winless team was playing between Week 6 to 13, on only 7 occasions did they actually have a turnover differential greater than 0 and in over half the cases their per-game TOD average was below -1. Historically, teams with a poor season-to-date TOD offer good bounce-back potential, whether they are winless or not.
So, here are all the details of this little gem (after adding in one Secondary condition as well).
(Notes: ASM stands for Average Spread Margin and TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this system at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average Spread for teams in this situation.)
System #32 Summary (Last Updated: Jan 15th, 2008)
Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) Team is winless SU.
2) Weeks 6-13.
Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)
1) Current Opponent had an Over Under (OU) <= 40 in their LG.
System Stats
ASM: +5.4
Home%: 50.9
Dog%: 88.7
TDIS%: 59.4
WT%: 0.0
SPR: +5.74
Top Teams: DET(8); CIN(7); CAR(5); ATL(4)
System Records
Overall (Since '94): 40-11 ATS
2007 Season: 4-2 ATS
2006 Season: 3-0 ATS
2005 Season: 1-0 ATS
2004 Season: 1-1 ATS
Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets
2007 WK12—PIT 3 MIA 0 (MIA +16) W
2007 WK11—PHI 17 MIA 7 (MIA +9.5) L
2007 WK10—STL 37 NO 29 (STL +11) W
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