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Stoffo's Baseball Streak System
This piece is an excerpt of Tony Stoffo’s highly regarded Money Management Book for the novice and professional gambler. It focuses on 12 betting systems, charts, analysis and wagering professionals. THE BASEBALL STREAKS SYSTEM Baseball Has Been Very, Very Good to Me Many sportsbooks would prefer to close their doors during baseball season. It’s not just that business slows after the football and basketball seasons end -- because it does, dramatically -- it’s that the smart gamblers hit the bookmakers up for a lot of money. So how come you’re not betting on baseball every day? (And I know you’re probably not.) Perhaps for many of the same reasons you’re not betting regularly on hockey, another sport with great value for gamblers. Believe me, I’ve heard all the excuses. “Baseball and hockey are boring.” “I can’t get with any sport in which a 2-1 score reflects a great game.” “I can’t watch a pro baseball without falling asleep.” “I’ve never even seen a pro hockey game.” My question to you is, Are you betting for entertainment or to make money? Granted, most U.S. gamblers aren’t nearly as familiar with hockey as they are with the 3 other major American sports: football, basketball and baseball. And, admittedly, baseball lags far behind football and basketball in mass appeal. But both baseball and hockey have traditionally provided great values for savvy gamblers. Not only that, their seasons span virtually the entire year, with Major League Baseball’s first pitch overlapping neatly with the push toward the National Hockey League’s Stanley Cup playoffs. Most important, both baseball and hockey differ from football and basketball in that the most common form of betting is on the moneyline (which team is going to win, straight up), not against the run-line or puck-line (in other words, the point spread, almost always 1.5 runs or goals). This provides an opportunity for great values when you follow the sports closely. Baseball features another unique dynamic in that even though it’s a team sport, it’s really about a single player, the pitcher, against another individual player, the batter. In the age of the Internet, it isn’t hard to determine how a particular pitcher does against a specific lineup, or at a particular ballpark. Hockey’s sort of the same way, only it’s the goalie against the opponent’s entire offense, more or less 1 man at a time. No wonder bookies hate hockey and baseball -- the latter of which is the only game going in the dead of summer. At the Desert Inn sportsbook, in fact, we felt fortunate to finish pro baseball season with 1% or less in losses on the books. When do you think we made up those millions of dollars? On “losers” blowing their yearly bankrolls in 17 quick weeks of pro football, and 1 long weekend of Final Four basketball, that’s when. So start “betting wise.” Use my 12 Money-Management Programs, and don’t take a gambling vacation during baseball and hockey seasons -- it could be costing you thousands of dollars a year. Play Only When Your Team’s Winning I learned my first money-management technique before I ever stepped foot in Las Vegas. I was working on Wall Street and a colleague of mine, Dave, couldn’t contain himself about all the money he was making betting on pro baseball. I was just a kid of 19 years old and Dave was in his mid-30s, so he loved playing mentor to my protégé. It didn’t take long for him to outline the whole process for me. It also didn’t take long for Dave to realize he could be making a full-time living off this process of his, which he’d learned from a friend, who had learned it from a friend, who’d learned it from a friend. So, one day, he simply quit his 6-figure Wall Street job and moved to Vegas. Twenty years later, when I was manager at the Desert Inn, Dave strolled into the sportsbook to lay a bet on, what else, baseball. I happily took it, and handed over his winnings 3 hours later. I hadn’t seen him in 2 decades, but he was happy to confirm that he made his living using his same old process of riding teams’ winning streaks and sitting on the sidelines during their losing streaks. I didn’t tell Dave, but I’d made a few adjustments to the process since I’d begun using it, improving it a bit to make it even more profitable. Now I’m going to share it with you. I think you’ll find those 3-hour baseball games so much more interesting when you’re winning a lot of money on them. The Set-Up Each of my 12 Money-Management Programs are composed of a Series of bets that are either predetermined by me or can be quickly calculated by you using a Formula I’ll provide you. For the purposes of our examples in this chapter, all bets are at varying moneyline and run-line odds, which will be explained with each scenario. The Program The Baseball Streaks System sounds almost too good to be true. You bet on teams only while they’re on winning streaks, and watch from the sidelines as they suffer through all of their losing streaks during the long season. It’s so simple it’s genius. It also works in the opposite fashion, in that you can bet against lousy teams, riding their losing streaks to big money, and sitting out while they string together a few wins. At the beginning of the season, or even after it’s started, pick several teams that you think will have either great or horrible years. When selecting “winners,” resist the urge to automatically pick dynasty teams like the Yankees, since bookmakers have long since grown weary of paying out on them and the odds will be stacked against you. For instance, the Yankees, A’s and Braves were the 3 best teams in baseball in 2002. Each had a winning percentage of between .627 and .629 and went on winning streaks of 3 or more games 16 or 17 times. Yet the Braves and A’s were much better values with oddsmakers. Remember, odds are all about public perception, and right now the Yankees are perceived as everyday winners. So look for teams with better value, perhaps those due for their first .600 season in a while, or (conversely) their first .400 season in a long time. Once you have your teams, start tracking the results of all their games. You’re waiting for a “Signal Result,” which if you’re tracking a “winner” is a victory and if you’re tracking a “loser” is a defeat. When a Signal Result occurs, that’s when you start betting. This allows you to catch each team as it enters either a winning or a losing streak. Series end when “winners” finally lose a game or “losers” finally win a game. For example, in The Baseball Streaks System, you wait for a team on your “winners” list to win a game, then you make a bet on it the next game and keep doing so until it wins 3 in a row for you or loses any 1 game. In this way, you will make a Series of between 1 and 3 wagers on the moneyline in amounts necessary to win the pre-calculated Series Amounts of $50, $50 or $25. (In this chapter and elsewhere, I will refer to the dollar figure you wager to win a moneyline bet the “Actual Wager Amount.”) The Series doesn’t end until you win 3 consecutive bets or you lose any 1 bet. In either case, you roll your profits into your Personal Betting Bankroll and start the Series over when you get another Signal Game. Of course, The Baseball Streaks System also works for betting against poor ball clubs, in which case you wait for a team on your “losers” list to lose a game, then you make a bet against it the next game and keep doing so until it loses 3 in a row for you or wins any 1 game. In this way, you will make a Series of between 1 and 3 wagers on the moneyline in amounts necessary to win the pre-calculated Series Amounts of $50, $50 or $25. The Goal The simple objective is to cash in on good teams’ winning streaks and poor teams’ losing streaks by riding them to 3 consecutive winning bets as many times as possible during a season. The Series 50-50-25. The Formula The Formula for setting the Series Amounts in The Baseball Streaks System is a, a, 1/2a. In the Series above, a = 50 or $50. If you find this too low, try a larger value of a, for example 100. If you pick $100 for the starting bet, your Series would be calculated as 100, 100, .5 x 100 = 50, or 100-100-50. For our purposes here, however, we will stick with the original Series Amounts for examples. As a guide to selecting which Series to play, you can add up the 3 Series Amounts in the Series you’re considering and make sure the combined total doesn’t represent more than 25% of your Personal Betting Bankroll. The Rules 1) To start this Series, wait until your selected “winning” team wins a game and then make a moneyline wager in the amount necessary to earn you the predetermined Series Amount of $50 (or an Actual Wager Amount) on its next game. 2) If your team wins, add your winnings to your Bankroll and make another bet on its next game, again in an amount enough to win the Series Amount of $50. 3) If you lose your first wager, cut your losses and start over the Series, going back to Rule 1, waiting for another Signal Result. 4) Continue betting as your team wins (or loses, if you’re betting on a “loser”), setting your Actual Wager Amounts according to the moneyline, until you win 3 wagers in a row (and your team wins 4 games in a row overall). Add your profits to your Bankroll and start over on a new Series. 5) Be sure to track all your bets carefully using the handy Chart at the end of this chapter. 6) Every month or so, evaluate your Personal Betting Bankroll, and increase your 4 Betting Blocks if you feel comfortable doing so. The Proof To show you just how well The Baseball Streaks System works, I’m going to use the worst possible example, the Yankees. As you’ll see below by the moneyline odds on each game, the bookmakers are wise to bettors trying to make it rich on baseball’s “best” team, so you routinely have to lay $2 or more to win $1. Still, using these actual moneyline odds and results from the first third of the 2002 Major League Baseball season, you’ll get a comprehensive idea of not only how to play the System but how extraordinarily well it works, even when the odds are stacked against you and your team. Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Series Profit $ 1 -1.85 - lose 0-1 - - 2 -1.75 - win 1-0 - - 3 -2.20 110 50 win 2-0 +50 +50 4 -2.40 120 50 win 3-0 +50 +100 5 -2.30 54 25 win 4-0 +25 +125 You start the season waiting for your Signal Result, a win by the Yankees. It comes in Game 2, so you bet starting with the next game, wagering $110 to win $50. The bet pays off and you ride the Yankees’ winning streak for 2 more games, pocketing $125 in profit, since your Series ends when you win 3 bets in a row. Note that you must lay a combined $284 to win a total of $125, which is why I suggest you pick a team other than the current MLB “dynasty.” Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $ 6 -2.80 - - win 5-0 - +125 7 -1.70 85 50 win 6-0 +50 +175 8 -1.70 85 50 win 7-0 +50 +225 9 -1.90 47 25 lose 0-1 -47 +178 The very next game, the Yankees’ sixth of the season, is a victory and therefore a Signal Result for you. So you wager $85 to win $50 on Game 7 and do the same on Game 8. Note that Game 9 ends your Series either way, since you will either get your goal of 3 consecutive wins or your first loss. As it turns out, you lose $47 trying to win $25, and start all over again. You are up $178 overall after a 5-1 record. Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $ 10 -1.90 - - lose 0-2 - +178 11 -1.40 - - lose 0-3 - +178 12 +140 - - lose 0-4 - +178 13 -1.90 - - win 1-0 - +178 14 -1.55 77 50 lose 0-1 -77 +101 See the amazing thing that happens during Games 10-12? You sit out while the Yankees go on literally their longest losing streak of the entire 2002 season. Then you get a Signal Result when they win Game 13, and wager on Game 14. Unfortunately, it’s a loss. Still, you watch from the sidelines, risking none of your Bankroll, as the Yankees lose. Sheer beauty. You stand at $101 with a 5-2 record, while the Yankees are 8-6. Had you bet on every game, you’d be at -$103, a loss of $204 after the first 2 weeks of the season. Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $ 15 -2.50 - - lose 0-2 - +101 16 -2.40 - - win 1-0 - +101 17 -2.40 120 50 win 2-0 +50 $151 18 -2.60 130 50 win 3-0 +50 $201 19 -1.50 37 25 lose 0-1 -37 $164 Did you wonder why the Series Amounts in this Series actually decrease after you get 2 wins in a row? I’ve chosen to hedge my bets in this System, because statistics show that even great teams going for their fourth win in a row win less than half the time, and you don’t want to give back all your profits from your first 2 wins. So far, it works out well, since the Yankees are now 1-2 when going for 4 consecutive wins, meaning you are 1-2 when going for 3 consecutive wins (since you sit out the first win waiting for your Signal Result). Still, you pick up $63 more in total profit, adding a total of $164 to your Bankroll with a 7-3 record. Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $ 20 -2.30 - - win 1-0 - $164 21 +1.10 47 50 win 2-0 +50 $214 22 -1.35 67 50 win 3-0 +50 $264 23 -1.30 32 25 lose 0-1 -32 $232 Again, the Yankees lose going for an elusive 4 wins in a row, but you still pick up another $68, giving you $232 with a 9-4 record. Notice that, for a change, the Yankees are getting decent odds. Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $ 24 -1.25 - - win 1-0 - $232 25 +1.35 37 50 lose 0-1 -37 $195 As you see, your Series can last just 1 bet if your team follows up a win with an immediate loss. You drop $37 to give you $195 with a 9-5 record. Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $ 26 +1.10 - - win 1-0 - $195 27 -1.50 75 50 win 2-0 +50 $245 28 -2.00 100 50 lose 0-1 -100 $145 Ouch. See why you want to stay away from such bad odds? To merely break even, you’ve got to win 2 games for every 1 loss when the moneyline is -2.00. That means your team can go .667 for the year, an amazing feat, and you make nothing if their moneyline odds are set at -2.00 every game. In this case, you go 1-1 yet drop $50, giving you $145 in profit with a 10-6 record. Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $ 29 -1.80 - - win 1-0 - $145 30 -1.20 60 50 lose 0-1 -60 $85 When choosing a team to bet on in this System, try to stay away from teams that “back and forth it” like the Yankees do on this stretch. Like the name says, in The Baseball Streaks System, you’re looking for “streaky” teams, both good and bad. This loss costs you $60, which depletes your profits to $85 with a 10-7 overall record. Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $ 31 -1.40 - - lose 0-2 - $85 32 -1.40 - - lose 0-3 - $85 33 -2.20 - - win 1-0 - $85 34 -2.30 115 50 win 2-0 +50 $135 35 -2.20 110 50 win 3-0 +50 $185 36 -1.20 30 25 win 4-0 +25 $210 Again, you achieve your goal of 3 consecutive wins, though the odds on Games 34 and 35 are ridiculously high, so you may want to consider playing the run-line in situations like these, betting that your team will win by at least 2 runs. However, you add $125 to your profits, putting you up $210 with a 13-7 record. Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $ 37 -1.20 - - win 5-0 - $210 38 -1.65 41 50 win 6-0 +50 $260 39 -3.20 160 50 win 7-0 +50 $310 40 -2.70 67 25 lose 0-1 -67 $243 Note that you are forced to sit out 1 game of the Yankees’ 7-game overall win streak while waiting for your Signal Result, yet you still profit handsomely from it, adding another $33 to give you a $243 profit with a 15-8 record. Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $ 41 -2.80 - - win 1-0 - $243 42 -2.20 110 50 win 2-0 +50 $293 43 -1.85 93 50 win 3-0 +50 $343 44 -2.60 65 25 win 4-0 +25 $368 The Yankees pay off for you again, achieving your goal of 3 consecutive wins for the third time in the first 44 games of the season. You add $125 more to your profits, giving you $368 with an 18-8 record. Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $ 45 -2.00 - - win 5-0 - $368 46 -2.40 120 50 win 6-0 +50 $418 47 -1.40 70 50 lose 0-1 -70 $348 It can be frustrating in situations like these to sit out a game while your team continues to win, but the numbers show it pays off in the long run. Consider that by betting on the A’s in 2002, their 20-game win streak alone brings you 5 complete Series’ goals and a profit of $875, even though you sit out 5 games of their amazing run. Here, you go 1-1 and drop $20, but you are still up $348 with a 19-9 record. Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $ 48 +2.00 - - lose 0-2 - $348 49 -1.35 - - lose 0-3 - $348 50 +1.35 - - win 1-0 - $348 51 -1.60 80 50 win 2-0 +50 $398 52 +1.15 44 50 win 3-0 +50 $448 53 -1.25 31 25 win 4-0 +25 $473 The Yankees finish the first third of the season by bringing you your fourth completed 3-game Series win, pushing your profits to $473 and your record to a remarkable 22-9 (for a .710 winning percentage). Meanwhile, overall the Yankees are 35-18 (for a .660 winning percentage), proving the System’s power to help you “sit out” their losing streaks. We’ll stop following the team here, since the oddsmakers set the moneyline of a mind-blowing 65 of the Yankees’ final 114 games (or 57%) at -2.00 or higher, and there’s no money in it for you as a savvy bettor. A good rule of thumb is that you want to bet on a team that wins at a .600 or better clip yet whose moneyline doesn’t go over -.200 more than 1 in every 5 games (or 20% of the time). For instance, the Braves and A’s of 2002 both fall into this category, proving to be a much better value than the Yankees. Seek out the opposite when betting against “losers.” For instance, the Brewers of 2002, who finished at a .346 winning percentage, faced +2.00 or worse moneyline odds in only 28 of 162 games (or 17%) and went on no fewer than 18 losing streaks of 3 games or more, making them a smart team to pick against all year long. Tips 1) Always have more than one bookmaker, whether “live” or online, at your disposal, especially when betting on the moneyline, so you can get the best possible odds. The difference between a -1.20 and -1.30 moneyline every game can mean hundreds of dollars over the course of a 162-game season. 2) When the moneyline goes above -2.00, consider playing the run-line (-1.5 runs) on favorites or pick another team to bet on. Do your homework, however, before betting on the run-line, carefully analyzing the pitcher and his past history against the opposing batters. Also check your team’s recent run production and margin of victory history. Some teams live and die by 1-run games, while other clubs habitually play comparatively few 1-run games. 3) Don’t be afraid to switch teams in mid-season. You can begin a new Series any time a team wins or loses a game, depending on whether you’re banking on them going on a winning or losing streak. By following the entire league closely, you can catch so-so teams on a hot streak, like the Red Sox opening the 2002 season or the Royals opening the 2003 season. 4) End your Series early if you wish. For instance, if you’ve won 2 games in a row with a team and the moneyline odds jump to -2.80 on the next game and you don’t like its chances of winning by 2 runs (so you don’t want to bet the run-line of -1.5), don’t throw away $70 trying to win $25 on the moneyline. 5) If you feel very strongly about your team’s chances, consider making your Series 50-50-75 instead of 50-50-25. Do some homework on your teams and determine their current record when going for their fifth win in a row (which would be 4 consecutive wins in the System). 6) Although I don’t implement it in the System’s Rules or the Yankees example above, this Program benefits by adding any additional losses above and beyond 11-10 odds to the payout of what would be your next Series Amount. In other words, when you lose a moneyline wager, add the difference between what you had to lay on the favorite to what you would have had to lay with traditional 11-10 odds (at Yankees -120, that’s $120 to win $100, instead of $110 to win $100, so you would add $10 to your next payout). 7) Don’t forget to also add any money paid to a professional handicapper for his picks to your Series Amounts. Keep in mind that if you pay $25 for 5 picks, you must add only $5 to each Series Amount, assuming you run 5 Series that day. In other words, divide the handicapper’s fee among the total number of picks you play that day. 8) If your Bankroll permits, you may want to run several Series simultaneously. 9) Consider combining The Baseball Streaks System with the parlay version of The Monthly Income System, which you’ll learn about in Chapter 15. 10) As always, keep strict track of your bets using copies of the Chart provided at the end of this chapter. Crunching the Numbers Again, with winners you’re looking for a team that wins about 60% of its games but doesn’t face moneylines of -2.00 or more too often. With losers, you’re seeking out teams that win no more than 40% of the time and don’t get moneylines of +2.00 a lot. Needless to say, it would have been much more profitable to bet on the Braves or A’s in 2002 than on the Yankees, who had an astounding 85 of their 166 regular and postseason games (or 51%) in 2002 with moneyline odds of -2.00 or worse. By contrast, only 37 of the A’s 167 games (or 22%) and only 29 of the Braves’ 167 games (or 17%) had moneyline odds of -2.00 or worse in 2002. So you can see how the perception of the odds is so much different than the reality of 3 teams with virtually identical records. During 2002, the Braves went on win streaks of 3 or more games 17 times and the A’s accomplished the same thing 16 times. There’s no way these kind of streaks (and the teams’ attractive odds) could result in anything but even bigger profits for you when using The Baseball Streaks System than the Yankees showed in the example above. It’s important to note that it takes the oddsmakers a while to “catch on” that a team’s a winner. Consider that only 3 of the Braves’ first 81 games in 2002 came with a moneyline at -2.00 or higher. Likewise, you would have had to lay $2 or more to win $1 on only 3 A’s games before the All-Star Break in 2002. For this reason, you’ll want to seriously consider switching teams in the second half of the season, perhaps more than once, since first-place teams will be risky investments. Instead, look to cash in on No. 2 or No. 3 teams going on streaks, either hot or cold. How hard do the oddsmakers make it on favorites in baseball’s second half? Consider that over the last 23 regular-season games in 2002 the moneyline odds on the Yankees fluctuated between a whopping -2.40 and a stratospheric -4.00. Despite the fact that the Yankees went a red-hot 17-6 (or .739) to finish the year, you would have lost $182 using even this powerful System, which allows you to sit out losing streaks. The moral, of course, is to run like Alfonso Soriano in the opposite direction of ludicrous moneyline odds in baseball (or hockey). Summing It All Up The Baseball Streaks System is a unique way to bet on teams when they’re winning and sit and watch while they’re losing. The key is to find teams that win often (60% of the time) and yet don’t come with big moneylines (-2.00 or higher) more than 1 game in 5. Conversely, you can bet against bad teams, banking that they’ll lose. Again, just make sure they seldom win (40% of the time or less) and that their moneylines aren’t worse than +2.00 more than 1 game in 5. Because oddsmakers make it tough during the second half of the season, don’t hesitate to jump from one team to the next in search of 3 consecutive wins or losses, as attractive odds make themselves available to the right teams. Here’s a quick overview of The Baseball Streaks System: 1) To start this Series, wait until your selected “winning” team wins a game and then make a moneyline wager in the amount necessary to earn you the predetermined Series Amount of $50 (or an Actual Wager Amount) on its next game. 2) If your team wins, add your winnings to your Bankroll and make another bet on its next game, again in an amount enough to win the Series Amount of $50. 3) If you lose your first wager, cut your losses and start over the Series, going back to Rule 1, waiting for another Signal Result. 4) Continue betting as your team wins (or loses, if you’re betting on a “loser”), setting your Actual Wager Amounts according to the moneyline, until you win 3 wagers in a row (and your team wins 4 games in a row overall). Add your profits to your Bankroll and start over on a new Series. 5) Every month or so, evaluate your Personal Betting Bankroll, and increase your 4 Betting Blocks if you feel comfortable doing so. Tony Stoffo is the former Race and Sportsbook Manager of the Desert Inn Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada. Tony has seen it all when it comes to sports betting. Tony has just released his new book “Money Management For The Year Round Professional Sports Handicapper”. In his book Tony not only shows you who to play, but more importantly, he teaches you how to play to maximize your betting dollars. If you would like more information about Tony's new book please visit www.learnhowtobet.com
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